气候变化对叶尔羌河流域极端水文事件的影响生Ecolo丹,等.气候变化对叶尔羌河流域极hengyi,WANG Dandan,et al.Influen18,37(6):1-8.

Influence of climate change on hydrological extremes of Yarkant River Basin

通过选取叶尔羌河流域4个典型气象、水文观测站点的月值数据,对比分析了气候变化背景下叶尔羌河流域气温、降水及径流的演变特征,并探究了其对极端水文事件响应。结果表明:(1)气候变化中,近55 a叶尔羌河流域气候变化整体呈增暖增湿趋势,以1998年变化最为显著,且4个典型观测站中库鲁克栏杆站气温及降水变化率最大(0.24℃·10a^(-1),7.41mm·10 a^(-1));(2)径流变化整体呈线性增加趋势且年内变化显著,其中叶尔羌河及提孜那普河年内径流量最大值分布集中于7月和8月;(3)近55 a叶尔羌河流域极端水文事件呈显著增加趋势,且以6月径流变化最为显著,降水增加及冰川加速消融是流域极端水文事件频发的主导因子。因此,加强水文事件对气候变化的应对措施和洪水灾害的影响评估,对提高叶尔羌河流域水资源的利用效率,减少其气候变化的危害具有重要意义。

Through selecting four typical weather of Yarkant River basin and the monthly data observed from hydrometric station,this paper makes a contrastive analysis of the evolution characteristics of air temperature,rainfall,and runoff of Yarkant River basin against the background of climate change,and explores the influence of climate change on hydrological extremes.The results are as follows.(1)During climate change,there was an overall trend towards warming and humidification in almost 55 a of Yarkant River basin,among which the climate change in 1998 was the most prominent.As for the four typical observation stations,the station of Kuluklangan witnessed the biggest change in air temperature and rainfall(0.24℃·10 a^-1,7.41 mm·10 a^-1).(2)The runoff variation was increased linearly on the whole and saw a significant change within the year.Among which the highest runoff volumes of Yarkant river and Tizinafu river were respectively concentrated in July and August.(3)There was a remarkably growing trend in terms of the number of hydrological extremes in almost 55 a of Yarkant River basin,and the runoff change in June witnessed the biggest change.The increasing of precipitation and the accelerating melt of glacier was the leading factors of the frequent occurrences of hydrological extremes.Therefore,we should improve the solutions of hydrological events to climate change and strengthen the impact evaluation over flood damage,which is of great importance to increasing the use efficiency of the water resource of Yarkant River basin and decreasing the negative effect of climate change on it.