基于Verhulst模型的合肥市新型城镇化发展水平预测

Prediction of New Urbanization Development Level in Hefei City Based on Verhulst Model

在衡量新型城镇化的各项评价指标中,城市的人口城镇化率是以人为本的新型城镇化水平的集中体现,人口城镇化率依然是未来新型城镇化发展水平理论研究的重点,以2000-2016年的合肥市城镇化率为原始数据,用灰色Verhulst模型对合肥市未来几年新型城镇化发展进行预测,为未来合肥市以及其他省市新型城镇化的研究提供参考。

Among the various evaluation indicators for measuring new urbanization,the urbanization rate of urban population is a concentrated expression of the new urbanization level of people-oriented,and the urbanization rate of population is still the future point research of the new urbanization development level theory.Taking the urbanization rate of Hefei city from 2000 to 2016 as the original data,the Grey Verhulst Model was used to predict the new urbanization development of Hefei in the next few years,and it can provide reference for the future research of new urbanization in Hefei city and other provinces and cities.