人口结构变化对人民币实际汇率影响的实证研究

Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Demographic Structure Changes on RMB Real Exchange Rate

基于多维人口结构视角实证检验了我国显著的人口结构变化对人民币实际汇率的影响,发现劳动人口比例、老年人口比例、城镇人口比例、人口性别比和人口技术结构等对人民币实际汇率具有显著影响,其中,老年人口比例和人口性别比对实际汇率的驱动体现了中国的特异性。基于这一分析,认为应重视人民币实际汇率变化动力系统中的人口结构因素,充分考虑我国多维人口结构变化及其此消彼长的现象在特定阶段对人民币实际汇率的综合影响,通过合理形塑人民币汇率行为助力经济结构转型和跨越"中等收入陷阱"。

Based on the multidimensional Demographic structure,it empirically tested the influence of China significant demographic structure changes in this paper on the real exchange rate of RMB,and found that the proportion of the labor force,the proportion of the elderly population,the population agglomeration degree,the sex ratio of the population and population technology structure have a significant impact on the RMB real exchange rate.Among them,the role of the proportion of the elderly population and the gender ratio reflected the specificity of China.Based on this analysis,it argued that should attach importance to role of demographic structure in the RMB real exchange rate dynamics,take full account of the comprehensive impact of China multi-dimensional demographic structure changes on the RMB real exchange rate at a specific stage.By rationally shaping the RMB exchange rate behavior,it will help realize the economic structure transformation and cross the "Middle-Income Trap".