农户参与森林碳汇经营管理意愿的影响因素分析——基于增强回归树(BRT)模型的实证研究

Analysis on influencing factors of farmers′ intention to manage forestry carbon sinks——An empirical study based on boosted regression tree

森林碳汇对于应对全球气候变化具有重要的意义。农户作为林业生产经营的主体,探寻农户参与森林碳汇的影响因素,对制定相应的调控措施具有积极的参考价值。本文基于江西省5大森林公园周边乡镇的453户农户的调查,利用调查所得数据,运用增强回归树(BRT)模型分析影响农户参与森林碳汇经营的各因素的影响差异及规律,结果表明:所调查地区的农户森林碳汇经营的意愿不太高,农户的森林碳汇经营管理程度有待加强;农户森林碳汇经营意愿主要受到森林碳汇经营管理预期和政府相关政策的影响,家庭特征次之,个人特征和森林碳汇认知水平较弱;未来信心、政策落实、成本态度、补偿形式、积极性影响、文化程度、碳汇功能认知是影响农户参与碳汇林经营管理的主要影响因素。

Forest carbon sinks play an important role in addressing global climate change.Farmers as the main body of forestry production and management,to explore the influencing factors of farmers'participation in forest carbon sinks,have positive reference value for the formulation of corresponding control measures.Based on the survey of453households in the five major forest parks in Jiangxi Province,the paper uses the data obtained from the survey and uses the BRT model to analyze the impacts and laws of the factors affecting farmers'participation in forest carbon management.The results showed that:Farmers'willingness to operate forest carbon sinks in the region is not very high,and farmers'forest carbon management needs to be strengthened;farmers'willingness to operate forest carbon sinks is mainly affected by forest carbon management expectations and government policies,followed by family characteristics.The cognitive level of personal characteristics and forest carbon sinks is weak;future confidence,policy implementation,cost attitudes,forms of compensation,enthusiasm impact,education level,and carbon sink function recognition are the main factors influencing farmers'participation in the management of carbon sink forests.