葫芦岛2017年秋冬过渡季最低气温预报方法初探

Preliminary study on the minimum temperature forecast method for the autumn and winter 2017 in Huludao

该文利用Micaps地面气象观测资料、中央气象台温度预报资料(SCMOC)、wrf温度预报资料、美国温度预报资料、自动站实况资料,对2017年11月葫芦岛地区的最低气温按天气系统分型后进行分析,结果表明:低压控制型天气,绥中低温低于连山,低温预报可根据规律对SCMOC和wrf的温度预报进行订正;高压前部型天气,绥中低温高于连山,兴城低温低于建昌,低温预报可根据规律对wrf和美国的温度预报进行订正;高压控制型天气,可根据前1 d实况对wrf和美国的温度预报进行订正;高压顶部型天气,可根据规律对美国的温度预报进行订正。

Using micaps ground meteorological observation data, the data of the national meteorological center forecast (SCMOC), WRF numerical forecast products, the United States three temperature prediction data, automatic station of live, the lowest temperature in November 2017 in Huludao region according to the weather system was analyzed after parting, the results show that the low voltage control type weather, Suizhong low temperature is lower than the mountains, low temperature forecast according to the rules of SCMOC and WRF's temperature forecast for correction; The high pressure front type weather, Suizhong low temperature is higher than Lianshan, and the low temperature of Xincheng is lower than Jianchang, the low temperature forecast can be revised according to the law to WRF and the American temperature forecast; The high pressure control weather can be revised according to the previous day's forecast of WRF and the United States. High pressure top type weather can be revised according to the law.