惠水县油菜花盛花期预报

Full flowering period forecast of rapeseed in Huishui county

利用贵州省惠水县农业气象站的油菜花观测资料以及逐日降水、平均气温和日照资料。采用相关分析以及逐步回归方法,分析各气象要素对惠水县油菜花盛花期的影响,结果表明:盛花期与越冬期积温呈明显的负相关性,活动积温越大,盛花期越早;盛花期距平与气温、日照和降水均有一定的关系,但是盛花期对气温因子比较敏感,对降水和日照因子不太敏感;利用各旬气温、降水和日照等40个因子进行逐步回归,得到盛花期距平的预报模型,进行回报检验拟合度较高。

Using rapeseed observation data and daily precipitation,average temperature,and sunshine data from the Huishui County Agricultural meteorological Station in Guizhou Province,the correlation analysis and stepwise regression methods were used to analyze the influence of meteorological elements on the full flowering period of rapeseed in Huishui County. The results show that there was a significant negative correlation between the full flowering period and the accumulated temperature during the wintering period. The higher the accumulated temperature,the earlier the flowering period was. There was a certain relationship between flowering duration and temperature,sunshine,and precipitation,but full flowering period was sensitive to temperature factors and was less sensitive to precipitation and sunshine factors. Stepwise regression was performed using 40 factors such as temperature,precipitation,and sunshine. The prediction model of full flowering period anomalies has a high degree of fitting in the test of returns.