中国反贫困工作40年历史演进——基于1979～2018中国反贫困政策的量化分析

The Evolution of Chinese Anti-poverty Work Over the Past 40 Years:An Quantitative Analysis Based on China's Anti-Poverty Policies(1979-2018)

本文收集了1979～2018年中央政府及相关部委发布的289个反贫困政策文件,从政策样本的数量与结构分布、政策类型与参与机构、阶段性任务与内容等方面进行多维度统计分析,深入剖析了改革开放以来中国反贫困政策的演化历程。研究发现:①不同时期的贫困特征决定了不同阶段反贫困政策的数量和结构;②各阶段反贫困政策目标和措施始终与国家战略目标保持高度一致;③反贫困政策演进深刻体现了中国特色反贫困思想体系的形成过程;④参与制定和实施反贫困政策的部门不断增多,政策合力得到增强;⑤反贫困政策的演进始终围绕经济与社会双轨发展这一基本动力。在此基础上,本文根据中国反贫困工作40年历史演进特征,对未来反贫困机制的完善提出了展望。

The sustainable and healthy operation and development of anti-poverty work depends on effective institutional arrangements in economy and society. This article conducts reviews on the evolution of China's anti-poverty policies since 1979 based on an analysis of 289 anti-poverty policies issued by the central government and relevant ministries over the past 40 years. This analysis is quantitative, based on a statistical analysis of the number and structural distribution of policies and policy instruments, types and institutions, as well as periodic goals and contents. Through these analyses, the study reveals the relationship between anti-poverty development and institutional arrangements. The following conclusions can be drawn. First of all, the number and structure of anti-poverty policies in different stages are determined by the poverty characteristics in different periods. Secondly, the anti-poverty policy goals and measures in all stages are always consistent with the national strategic objectives. Thirdly, the evolution of anti-poverty policies deeply embodies the formation process of anti-poverty ideological system with Chinese characteristics. Fourthly, participation and implementation departments in the development of policies are increasing so that the policy synergies can be enhanced. Fifthly, the evolution of anti-poverty policies has always reflects the basic motive force of economic and social development. To summarize, over the past 40 years, changes in institutional arrangements have provided a strong impetus to Chinese anti-poverty development. In the future, the formulation of anti-poverty development policies needs to keep pace with the times and continue to innovate. At the national strategic level, the Chinese government should gradually improve the institution and mechanism of anti-poverty policies based on the poverty characteristics at this stage. After 2020, poverty reduction must be continued so that the ultimate goal of common prosperity could be achieved.