“中巴经济走廊”周边国家贸易潜力及其影响因素

Trade Potential and Its Influencing Factors of the Neighboring Countries of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

本文采用随机前沿引力模型和一步法模型估计"中巴经济走廊"周边国家的贸易潜力及其影响因素,接着进一步测算和分析中国对"中巴经济走廊"其余周边国家的出口效率与出口贸易增长空间。研究结果表明,贸易非效率因素是阻碍贸易潜力实现的最主要原因,政治风险的加深助长了贸易非效率,而上海合作组织、经济自由度等因素则抵消了部分贸易非效率的影响。中国对"中巴经济走廊"其余周边国家的出口效率总体水平偏低,经济走廊的贯通将使部分周边国家的预计出口增长空间平均提升约23%。随着贸易非效率因素改善,中国对"中巴经济走廊"其余周边国家的出口贸易将获得更大的极限出口增长空间。

This paper adopted a stochastic frontier gravity model and a one-step model to estimate the trade potential and its influencing factors of the neighboring countries of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).Then,it made further measurement and analysis of efficiency and trade growth space of China’s export to the neighboring countries of CPEC. The results show that trade inefficiency is the most important factor hindering the realization of trade potential;the deepening of political risks contributes to trade inefficiencies,while the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,economic freedom and other factors offset the impact of some trade inefficiencies;the overall export efficiency from China to CPEC’s neighboring countries is relatively low,and the penetration of the CPEC increases the expected export growth space of some neighboring countries by an average of about 23%.With the improvement of trade inefficiencies,China’s export to CPEC’s neighboring countries will achieve larger maximum export growth space.