商业银行信贷产业结构效应与优化对策

Industrial Structure Effect and Optimization of Commercial Bank Credit

现阶段中国商业银行信贷结构的变化,既是商业银行自身经营发展带来的结果,也是宏观经济形势发展变化与经济结构调整的结果。本文通过梳理现阶段中国商业银行信贷结构的演变及其产业结构效应,针对1985—2016年三大产业产值比重、商业银行短期和中长期贷款与贷款行业投向等数据,对现阶段商业银行信贷结构与产业结构演变之间关系进行协整分析。结果发现,现阶段中国商业银行信贷结构的变化与产业结构变动之间存在着显著的长期均衡关系,同时当前商业银行信贷结构的"顺周期性"也得以验证。在现阶段中国商业银行信贷结构变化的过程中,不同的贷款期限结构对于产业结构的变动发展存在显著差异,这为现阶段中国产业结构调整与优化的实践操作提供了更多理论支撑和经验依据。为此,本文最后给出了当前优化商业银行信贷结构的对策。

At present,the change of credit structure of commercial banks in China is not only the result of the development of commercial banks themselves,but also the result of the development of macroeconomic situation and the adjustment of economic structure.By combing the evolution of credit structure and industrial structure effect of commercial banks in China at this stage,using data such as the proportion of output value of three major industries,short-term and medium-term loans of commercial banks and investment orientation of the loan industry between 1985 and 2016,this paper studies the relationship between credit structure and industrial structure evolution of commercial banks by the co-integration analysis at this stage.The results show that there is a significant long-term equilibrium relationship between the changes of credit structure and economic structure of commercial banks in China at this stage.Then,it also verifies the pro-cyclicality of the current credit structure of commercial banks.At the same time,in the process of the change of credit structure of commercial banks in China at present,there are significant differences in the change and development of industrial structure between different term structures,which provides more theoretical support and empirical basis for the practical operation of industrial restructuring and optimization in China.On this basis,this paper finally gives the countermeasures to optimize the credit structure of commercial banks.