淡水河流域不同重现期洪峰流量的推导

Derivation of Flood Peak Flow in Different Return Periods in Freshwater River Basin

在洪水灾害管理中,不同重现期的洪峰流量是进行防洪规划的重要参考依据,目前M地区的流量观测站常有分布不均、观测年份过短或数据不齐全等问题。本研究以淡水河流域为例,选取1996～2016年的日流量资料,对洪水频率进行分析,根据适合度检测结果挑选各测站最适合的机率分布,推导集水区不同重现期的洪峰流量,并结合气候、地形、土地利用与覆盖等集水区环境特征参数,建立适用于淡水河流域的洪水推估模式。

In flood disaster management, flood peak flow in different return periods is an important reference for flood control planning. At present, flow observation stations in M area often have uneven distribution, short observation period or incomplete data. Taking the freshwater river basin as an example, this study selects the daily flow data from 1996 to 2016 to analyze the flood frequency, selects the most suitable probability distribution of each station according to the fitness test results, and derives the flood peaks of different return periods in the catchment area. A flood estimation model for the freshwater river basin is established based on the environmental characteristic parameters of the catchment area such as climate, topography, land use and coverage.