当前国际形势的特点和展望——着眼于中国定位与应对的讨论

China's Positioning and Response in a World in Flux

当前,国际形势总体上虽有望稳定,但不确定性更加突出。特朗普政府奉行的"美国优先"政策使大国关系发生深刻变化,竞争面突出,并进入深度调整期。国际安全和军事态势更加复杂。世界经济复苏接近周期性触顶,下行风险逐渐增大。特朗普政府推行的贸易保护主义和经济单边主义引发一系列国际经贸摩擦,全球经济治理遭遇巨大挑战。美国资本市场波动触发全球金融突发性调整的风险增大,而中美贸易关系如何发展则将对世界经济产生系统性影响。全球科技有望在诸多新兴领域实现突破,并将对全球经济与国际关系等领域产生深远影响。未来全球产业格局、商业模式等将受新兴科技深化创新的影响而不断呈现新面貌。新技术催生的行业标准之争已经并将进一步成为国际经济与科技博弈的主要领域,并将对行业乃至相关国家的全球产业地位产生深远影响。科技因素对国家间实力对比以及国家外交资源构成的影响会进一步上升,并推动国际格局演变。在新形势下,中国与世界的互动日益紧密,世界对中国的关注和期待更是不断上升。面对复杂多变的国际形势,中国需要根据形势发展而不断调整自我定位并积极应对各种可预见和不可预见的挑战。

Despite a trend toward general stability between major powers, uncertainty and unpredictability are on the rise. The implementation of the Trump administration’s “America First” policy has brought about fundamental changes in great power relations, for example, growing strategic competition. Issues of international security and military development have become prominent. The world economy is facing downward pressure after reaching a cyclic high point. Trade protectionism and economic unilateralism on the part of the United States under the leadership of President Trump present major challenges for effective global economic governance. The fluctuations on the U.S. financial market may create ripple effects around the world. The trajectory of China-U.S. trade relations will exert a huge, systemic impact on the world economy. On the other hand, the world is on the threshold of another round of major breakthroughs in science and technology which are expected to have a major influence on the global economy and international relations. Under such an influence the global landscape of industrial development and business models may take a whole new look in the next decades. As a result, great power competitions will increasingly revolve around industrial norm-setting and standard-making. Science and technology will certainly become a major battleground of great power competition and be prioritized as an important dimension of comprehensive national power. In a time when China is increasingly connected with the rest of the world, high hopes are placed on China as a great power with greater international responsibility. China has to recalibrate its position according to the latest geopolitical and geoeconomic developments to better respond to various predictable and unpredictable challenges.