权力位置、身份定位与21世纪中美关系的演进——兼论新时代中国外交的应对

The Power Position,Identity Orientation,and the Evolution of Sino-U.S. Relations

在中美建交四十周年的历史节点与特朗普政府对华战略明显强硬转向这两大因素影响下,中美关系的复杂性与动态性进一步凸显。主流国际关系理论虽然从不同角度切入,总结出中美关系的发展具有"冲突论""合作论""不确定论"与"竞合论"等若干种不同的特征和结局,但是它们更多地存在单一归因的缺陷,无法兼容与自洽地解释中美关系的多维度面向,从而导致理论推论大都陷入"线性逻辑"困境。有鉴于此,本文尝试在批判性继承既有理论与结合现实政治的基础上,以权力位置转换的速度与身份定位变化为两大主次自变量,构建能够解析中美之间"非线性关系"的解释模型。本文认为,在面对美国对华采取逼迫式战略定位时,中国尝试创造中美合作的诱因是能够缓解自身战略压力的潜在途径。同时,中国的外交应对还需把握"内部经济发展的可持续性"与"明确外交原则"两大基本点,才能在特朗普时期的中美策略互动中实现更多的利益交换目标。

The relationship between the United States and China has come to a historical crossroads when Washington and Beijing marks the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations and at the same time the Trump administration is turning more hostile toward China. The common shortcoming regarding the existing theories that have predicted four different eventualities for the bilateral relationship, namely, conflict, cooperation, uncertainty, and cooperation-competition nexus, is their narrow focus on only one factor, thus failing to fully understand the multiple dimensions of the U.S.-China dynamics. This article tries to apply two independent variables-power position and identity orientation-to construct an explanatory model to elaborate the non-linear relational property in Sino-U.S. relations. This article further recommend that China create the cooperation basis and incentive for the United State to alleviate the growing strategic pressure on China. China’s foreign policy should adhere to two fundamental points: domestic sustained economic growth and an articulate foreign policy, which may be help increase exchanges of interests with the Trump administration.