中国实业部门投融资决策机制研究——基于经济政策不确定性和融资约束异质性视角

The Investing and Financing Decision Mechanism of the Chinese Real Sector:Economic Uncertainty and the Financial Constraints Perspective

本文将经济政策不确定性引入三期动态投融资模型,基于融资约束条件对中国实体企业进行分类,阐释经济政策不确定性对不同融资约束企业的投融资决策的差异化影响,并利用2007—2017年非金融类上市公司的季度数据开展实证检验。理论分析和计量结果一致表明,无论企业的融资约束高低,经济政策不确定性升高均会导致固定资产投资下降,但融资决策的调整依赖于所面临的融资约束程度。特别地,杠杆率下降幅度和现金持有向上调整幅度在低融资约束企业要明显弱于高融资约束企业。进一步的机制分析还发现,经济政策不确定性通过未来现金流预期、固定资产收益率和现金流不确定性影响企业投融资决策,但不显著影响债务融资成本。

As the structural problems implicit in the early stages of China s economic growth have emerged, there has been a subtle shift in the investing and financing mechanisms of China s real sector (that is, non-financial firms). Since 2006, the real investment rate of real firms has been declining, while the proportion of financial investment has gradually increased, and the leverage of the financing side has remained high. To encourage real investment and reduce leverage among real enterprises, China has introduced a series of economic policies (especially supply-side structural reform measures). The economic policy uncertainty implied by the adjustment amplitude and frequency of macroeconomic policy has a significant impact on the investment and financing decisions of various enterprises, but this kind of influence is usually more hidden, and has thus received little attention to date among researchers. This paper examines the decision-making mechanism for investing and financing among Chinese real sector firms, based on economic policy uncertainty and the heterogeneity of financing constraints. To summarize, this paper focuses on the following three interrelated issues. First, how do firms make investment decisions in response to economic uncertainty? We pay attention to different results for different firms with different financing constraints, and discuss their implications. Second, given the important role of economic policy uncertainty, how do firms dynamically adjust their financing decisions (especially cash holdings and leverage)? In particular, we want to examine whether there are significant differences in financing constraints for different firms. Third, through which channels does economic policy uncertainty affect the investing and financing decisions of firms, and ultimately lead to different financing constraints on enterprises as they make differentiated responses? Studying these three problems not only helps us understand changes in firms investing and financing decisions in response to macroeconomic policy, but is also of great significance for understanding the optimal path of macro-level supply-side structural reform from the micro level. We introduce economic policy uncertainty into a three-period investing and financing model for firms. We also classify Chinese real sector firms based on different financing constraints and explain the differential impacts of economic policy uncertainty on the investing and financing decisions of different firms. Our empirical analysis utilizes quarterly data for China s non-financial firms listed in the A-share stock market from 2007 to 2017. The theoretical model and empirical results consistently show that, regardless of firms financing constraints, an increase in economic policy uncertainty leads to the decline of real investment (i.e. fixed asset investment), but the adjustment of financing decisions depends on the degree of financing constraints that firms face. Specifically, the decline in leverage and upward adjustment of cash holdings in firms with low financial constraints is significantly weaker than in firms with high financial constraints. Further mechanism analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty affects enterprise investing and financing decisions through future cash flow expectations, fixed asset yields, and cash flow uncertainties, but the impact on debt financing costs is not statistically significant. Based on our theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions. First, economic policy adjustment requires greater attention to amplitude and frequency to avoid uncertainty, and must take market self-regulation into account. Second, in the process of supply-side structural reform, it is important to focus on adjusting the leverage ratio of state-owned enterprises and large enterprises, especially zombie enterprises, rather than private enterprises and small enterprises. Third, the government must consider the differences between different financing constraints for different economic components in particular regions, to promote the growth of real enterprise differentiation in China.