中国货币供应量、产出和通货膨胀关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Money Supply,Output and Inflation in China

文章基于VAR模型,对中国货币供应量、产出和通货膨胀三者之间的关系进行了实证分析,选取了中国1979年-2016年的年度时间序列数据,采用了协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲函数分析的方法,展开了三者关系的分析和检验,得出中国货币供应量、产出和通货膨胀之间具有长期的协整关系,三者互为格兰杰因果关系,货币供应量增加对产出和通货膨胀短期内会具有一个正向的影响和冲击,但长期影响不大,产出对通货膨胀短期和长期影响均不大,通货膨胀对产出短期内存在一定的负向影响,而长期却具有正向影响的基本结论,提出我国应将现在通过调整货币供应量改为调整利率作为中国货币政策的主要中介变量的政策建议,以期实现优化我国货币政策规则的目的。

This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between money supply,output and inflation in China by building VAR model.The annual time series data of China from 1979 to 2016 was selected,and the methods of cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and pulse function analysis were used to analyze and test the relationship between the three.The results show that China's money supply,output and inflation has a long-term cointegration relationship and the three are mutual granger causality.And the money supply to increase will have a positive impact on output and inflation in the short term,but the long-term impact is not big,output impact on inflation are not big both short and long term,inflation has certain negative influence on output in the short term but has a positive influence in the long term.It is proposed that China should change its policy of adjusting the money supply to adjusting interest rates as the main intermediary means of China’s monetary policy,with a view to achieving the goal of optimizing China's monetary policy rules.