全球价值链参与度与贸易隐含碳

GVC Participation and Carbon Embodied in International Trade:Nonlinear Analysis Based on GMRIO and PSTR Model

研究目标:测算中国对外贸易隐含碳,并揭示全球价值链参与度与贸易隐含碳之间的非线性关系。研究方法:本文基于全球多区域投入产出模型,充分考虑中间投入结构系数和污染排放系数的差异,对中国对外贸易隐含碳排放进行了测算,并运用面板平滑转换模型分析了主要变量之间的非线性关系。研究发现:进出口贸易隐含碳排放整体上均呈上升趋势,贸易隐含碳平衡指标始终表现为赤字,且赤字在不断扩大,证明"污染天堂假说"成立。重工业在贸易隐含碳排放中扮演着最重要的角色,且中间品进出口贸易隐含碳排放明显高于最终品。GVC参与度对出口贸易隐含碳、进口贸易隐含碳、贸易碳平衡和污染贸易条件均存在不同转换机制下的非线性影响,随着技术水平的连续变化,前三个模型呈现双门槛特征,污染贸易条件模型呈现单门槛特征。研究创新:研究视角上,将GVC参与度和贸易隐含碳排放纳入同一分析框架,侧重分析了贸易利益与环境利益之间的逻辑关系。理论模型上,构建包含GVC的贸易隐含碳分解模型。经验方法上,不仅充分考虑各国家部门的中间投入结构系数和污染排放系数差异,而且从行业结构和产品结构层面多角度解析GVC参与度对贸易隐含碳的影响。研究价值:研究结论为中国借助贸易政策以达成碳减排目标提供了新的视角和政策着力点。

Research Objectives:To calculate the implied carbon in China's foreign trade and reveals the nonlinear relationship between the participation of global value chains (GVC) and the implied carbon in trade.Research Methods:To create the Global MultiRegional InputOutput (GMRIO) model in order to consider the difference between the intermediate input structure coefficient and the pollution emission coefficient, and apply the Panel Smooth Transition Model (PSTR) to analyze the nonlinear relationship among the main variables.Research Findings:On the whole, the implied carbon emissions in import and export trade are on the rise,and the balance of implicit carbon emissions in trade has always been a deficit, thus,the hypothesis of “pollute heaven” is established;From the characteristics of industry and product structure,heavy industry plays the most important role in the carbon emissions of foreign trade, the carbon emissions embodied in tradeoff intermediate products are significantly higher than those of final products; The impact of GVC participation has a nonlinear effect on the carbon emissions embodied in export trade, the carbon emissions embodied in import trade, the balance of implicit carbon emissions in trade, and the conditions of trade pollution under different switching mechanismsThe first three models show the double threshold characteristics of first rising, then falling and then rising,the model of trade pollution condition presents a single threshold characteristic that first rises and then decreases.Research Innovations:To integrate GVC participation and trade implied carbon emissions into a unified analysis framework, focusing on the logical relationship between trade interests and environmental interestsTo construct a trade implicit carbon decomposition model including GVCTo consider fully the coefficient difference between intermediate input structure coefficient and pollution emission and the impact of GVC participation on trade implied carbon from the perspective of industry structure and product structure.Research Value:The conclusion of the study provides a new focus for China to achieve carbon emission reduction targets through trade policies.