全球产出调整分析框架下汇率升值的产出效应研究

Research on the Output Effect of Exchange Rate Appreciation under the Framework of World Output Adjustment

研究目标:评估世界几种主要货币升值对各国GDP的作用效应以及对各国各行业增加值的作用效应。研究方法:基于全球价值链视角,建立全球产出调整分析框架,应用世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)数据,对货币升值效应进行评估。研究发现:货币升值对国内外GDP具有不同方向的作用效应,批发贸易等行业对汇率升值敏感。研究创新:推导建立了全球产出调整分析框架以及汇率变动引致全球产出调整分析框架。研究价值:依据全球各国分行业增加值变动模型、全球各国GDP变动模型,可以计算由于成本冲击、需求冲击等因素导致的全球各国各行业增加值变动水平以及各个生产环节增加值变动水平,该项技术为进一步细化研究全球经济联系提供了支持。

Research Objectives: This paper is to evaluate the effect of currency appreciations on output based on global input-output connections. Research Methods: We construct a theoret-ical model, and then utilize the data from World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to calcu-late the effect.Research Findings: Currency appreciation has a negative effect on home coun-try and a positive effect on foreign countries; Wholesale industry and some other industries are sensitive to currency appreciation. Research Innovations: We construct the framework of world output adjustment under the view of global value chain. Research Value: Based on the model,we can calculate the effects of exogenous shocks on output.