全球价值链视角下汇率波动对出口贸易的影响

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports from the Perspective of Global Value Chains

从全球价值链(GVCs)的视角,选取2000～2015年33个国家的出口贸易数据,构建动态面板模型考察汇率波动对出口贸易的影响作用,结果表明实际有效汇率波动对一国的出口贸易具有显著的负向作用。在将全球价值链因素加入面板数据模型后,发现全球价值链参与度提高会削弱汇率波动对出口值的抑制作用。对于那些全球价值链参与度较低的国家而言,保持其汇率稳定即汇率波动幅度较小会使其在国际贸易中受益;而对于那些全球价值链参与度较高的国家而言,汇率波动幅度相对较大则更为有利。

From the perspective of Global Value Chains(GVCs), this paper builds a dynamic panel model with the exports data of 33 countries over the period of 2000-2015 to analyze how exchange rate volatility influences exports. This paper finds that the exchange rate volatility has a negative influence on exports. After the factor of GVCs is added into the empirical research model, it is found that the effects of exchange rate volatility on the exports can be mitigated by the GVCs participation. For those countries with low GVCs participation, it is beneficial to maintain a steady exchange rate, while a fluctuating exchange rate can be suitable for those which participate more in GVCs.