分税制改革下纵向财政失衡与全要素生产率损失

Research on the Relationship between Vertical Fiscal Imbalance and Total Factor Productivity under the Background of Tax Distribution Reform

本文选择中国1995-2016年29个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,通过系统GMM模型检验纵向财政失衡对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现:(1)在基准回归分析中,纵向财政失衡抑制了全要素生产率的提升,即给全要素生产率带来了损失。(2)进一步分析,地区异质性表现为,中西部地区的抑制作用要大于东部地区,同时纵向财政失衡高的地区的抑制作用也大于纵向财政失衡低的地区;时序异质性表现为,1995-2001年的正向促进,2002-2016年的反向抑制;政府行为异质性表现为:政府竞争的加剧和转移支付的增加均会降低纵向财政失衡对全要素生产率的抑制作用。最后,研究得到增加政府竞争和转移支付可以有效地降低纵向财政失衡,以此来实现全要素生产率提升的重要启示。

This paper selects panel data of 29 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 1995 to 2016 in China, and uses system-GMM to test the impact of vertical fiscal imbalance on total factor productivity. The conclusion is as follows:(1)In the benchmark regression analysis, vertical fiscal imbalances inhibit the increase in total factor productivity, which is the loss of total factor productivity.(2)In further analysis, the regional heterogeneity is that the central and western regions have greater inhibitory effects than the eastern regions, while the vertical fiscal imbalances have greater inhibitory effects than the vertical fiscal imbalances; the heterogeneity of time series is that the positive promotion in 1995-2001 and the reverse inhibition in 2002-2016; the heterogeneity of government behavior is that the aggravation of government competition and the increase of transfer payments will reduce the inhibition of vertical fiscal imbalance on total factor productivity. Finally, it is concluded that increasing government competition and transfer payments can reduce vertical fiscal imbalances and promote the promotion of total factor productivity.