内敛与外向交替演变:美国对欧政策史的周期考察

Alternative Evolution between Introversion and Extroversion:Periodic Examination on American Policies towards Europe

迄今为止,美国的欧洲外交政策经历了五个完整的内敛期和外向期,目前正处于第六个内敛期的末段。欧洲战争与和平,亚太、中东等其他地区的地缘政治变化,美国的实用主义民族特性、经济状况、党派斗争等因素共同驱动着美国对欧政策在内敛期与外向期之间交替转换。根据美国对欧政策周期的平均时长、美国政治的代际规律和近年来欧洲面临的种种危机推断,美国对欧政策的第六个内敛期可能在2025年左右结束,这意味着届时美国会将更多的战略资源投放到欧洲地区。

Until now, U.S. European policies have experienced five complete outward periods and inward periods, and currently are in the sixth inward period. War and peace in Europe, geopolitical changes in the Asia Pacific, the Middle East and other regions, the national character of American Pragmatism, economic situation, party politics and other factors drive the American policies towards Europe to shift between introversion and extroversion. According to the average periodic duration of the U.S.policies towards Europe, the inter-generational law of American politics and various crises in Europe in recent years, we can deduce that the sixth inward period of American policy towards Europe may end around 2025, which means that by that time the United States would pay more attention to the European region.