技术创新影响大学生就业的系统动力机制

System Dynamics Mechanism of Technological Innovation Affecting College Students Employment

本文应用系统动力学方法建立因果关系模型,通过反馈回路分析、内生技术进步理论,研究技术创新影响大学生就业系统动力机制。研究发现:技术创新是影响大学生就业的重要因素,对大学生就业产生促进作用,也产生挤出效应;技术创新与大学生就业两者之间存在复杂的因果反馈回路关系,当期毕业生数量的增长,通过反馈回路对未来的大学生就业产生影响;解决未来大学生就业问题的关键是培养能促进技能偏向型技术创新的人才,推动有益于创造新市场、新产品的技术创新活动,为未来的大学生创造更多的市场需求。政府加强对基础研究的激励有益于促进企业进行技能偏向型的技术创新,形成技术创新与大学生就业、产业升级互动的良性循环。

Establishing the causalitymodel using System Dynamics,through feedback loop analysis and endogenous technological progress theory,we research the system dynamicsmechanism of technological innovation affecting college Students employment.The research shows that technological innovation is an important factor affecting the employment of college Students,promoting employment,also having a crowding-out effect;there is a complex causal feedback loop between technological innovation and college students'employment,the growth of the number of graduates in the current period having an impact on the future employment of college students;the key to solve the employment problem of college students is cultivating those who can promote the skill biased technological innovation,drive technology innovation activities which create new markets,new products,create more market demand for the future college students.Enhancing the incentive of basic research by government is beneficial to promote skill biased technological innovation in enterprises and form a virtuous circle of interaction between technological innovation,college students'employment and industrial upgrading.