房地产限购政策实施效果的评价——基于济南、青岛两市的断点回归估计

An Empirical Research on the Restriction Effect of the Real Estate Market——Analysis of the Regression Discontinuity Based on Jinan and Qingdao

2016年底中央经济工作会议提出要坚持"房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的"的定位后,国内许多城市相继出台了房地产限购政策来控制房价上涨。以济南和青岛两市房地产市场为研究对象,通过断点回归估计来评估限购政策对房价的抑制效果。实证研究发现,济南市限购政策在短时间内对房价有抑制作用,但长期效果不大,青岛市的限购政策对房价基本没起到抑制作用。总体而言,以行政为主导的房地产调控政策对房价的抑制作用不明显。

By the end of 2016 the central economic working conference proposed adhering to the principle that"housing is for living,not for speculation".Since then,many cities have issued restriction policies to curb the soaring housing price.This paper,by taking Jinan and Qingdao as the research objects,evaluates the effect of the restriction policy by means of the regression discontinuity.It is found that the policy has a restraining effect on the housing price in Jinan in a short time though in the long run the effect is not obvious,while the policy has no effect on the housing price in Qingdao.In general,the restriction policy has no clear effect on the housing price.