北京市农业产业结构调整对农民收入的影响

Research onimpacts of agricultural industrial structure adjustment on farmers' income in Beijing

【目的】为了分析北京市农业产业结构调整对农民收入变迁的影响。【方法】运用协整检验、脉冲响应及方差分解等方法对北京农业产业结构调整与农民收入之间的关系进行实证分析。【结果】结果表明,从短期看,以种植业为代表的农业与牧业不利于农民收入的增长,而林业与渔业对农民收入增长具有较好的带动作用。从长期看,农业仍然对农民收入的贡献度最大,其次为林业和渔业,牧业对农民收入的贡献度相对较小。【结论】从农业供给侧结构性改革视角对北京市未来农业、林业、牧业、渔业的发展方向提出政策建议。

【Objective】In order to analyze the impacts of agricultural industrial structure adjustment(AISA)on the income of rural residents in Beijing,【Methods】this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the AISA and rural residents’income by using co-integration test,impulse response and variance decomposition method.【Results】The results show that,in the short term,agriculture represented by the planting industry and animal husbandry are not conducive to the growth of farmers'income,while forestry and fishery play agood role in promoting the growth of farmers'income.However,in the long run,agriculture still has the greatest contribution to farmers’income,followed by forestry and fishery,and the contribution of animal husbandry to farmers'income is relatively small.【Conclusion】From the perspective of agricultural supply-side reform,the article puts forward some policy suggestions on the future development of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery in Beijing.