基于权马尔科夫链模型淮北平原西部地下水埋深预测研究

Prediction of the Groundwater Table in the West of Huaibei Plain Based on Weight Markov Chain Model

地下水位埋深动态预测研究是地下水资源评价的重要内容之一;地下水位变化受气象、水文、地质、开采及补给等诸多因素制约,而且各因素之间的关系很难确定,难以用简单的线性函数进行描述,故地下水埋深具有随机性。该研究采用基于权马尔科夫链建立淮北平原西部地下水埋深预测模型,预测了区内地下水埋深所处的区间值,结果表明研究区中深层地下水多处于[5.080 m,5.960 m),处于[6.448 m,+∞)出现的概率也偏高;浅层地下水埋深多处于[2.925 m,3.635 m),处于[3.990 m,+∞)也呈现增大趋势,研究表明在地下水不合理的开发利用下,淮北平原西部地下水埋深呈增大趋势;该研究成果为淮北平原西部地下水资源管理与决策提供一种新的方法。

The dynamical predication of groundwater buried depth is an important content of groundwater resource assessment.However,changes of grounder water buried depth are restricted by many factors,with difficulties in determining their relationships that can not depicted simply by linear model,such as meteorology,hydrology,geology,exploitation and replenishment,etc.which makes the randomness of groundwater buried depth.In this research,the interval values of groundwater buried depth in the west of Huaibei Plain were predicated by using a model based on Markov Chain.The results showed that the depth of middle-deep groundwater was mostly distributed in[5.080 m,5.960 m)and the occurrence of the value at[6.448 m,+∞)also has relatively high probability;the depth of shallow groundwater was mostly distributed in[2.925 m,3.635 m)and the occurring probability of the value at[3.990 m,+∞)was also increasing,both of which imply that the depth of grounder in research area was deepening because of the unreasonable employment and thus corresponding prevention measures in water resource management should be proposed.This research may provide a new method for groundwater resource management and decision in the area.