基于灰色方法的山西省粮食产量预测

Prediction of Grain Yield in Shanxi Province Based on Grey Method

用以GM(1,n)为主的灰色方法对山西省粮食产量进行预测.阐述了灰色方法的基本内容;预测了山西省粮食产量,主要预测步骤为用灰色关联分析法从九种影响因素中选出了影响粮食产量的六种主要因素,预测了2010年至2017年的粮食产量,以很小的平均误差验证了GM(1,n)的可靠性,用GM(1,1)和曲线估计相结合的方法预测了2018年至2020年各个影响因素的值,用GM(1,n)预测了这三年的粮食产量;在分析数据的基础上得出了结论,提出了提高粮食产量的建议.

The purpose of this paper is to forecast the grain output of Shanxi Province by using GM(1,n)as the main grey method.The paper expounds the basic content of the grey method and forecasts the grain output of Shanxi Province.The main forecasting step is to select six main factors affecting the grain output from nine influencing factors by the grey correlation analysis method.The grain output from 2010to 2017is forecasted.The reliability of GM(1,n)is verified by small average error.The value of each influencing factor from 2018to 2020is predicted by the method of combining GM(1,1)and curve estimation while the grain output in these three years is forecasted by GM(1,n).Based on the analysis of the data,the conclusion is drawn and the suggestions to improve the grain output are put forward.