我国海洋渔业社会-生态系统脆弱性影响因素分析——基于ISM模型

Analysis of factors influencing marine fisheries social-ecological systems vulnerability in China based on interpretative structural modeling

基于海洋渔业社会-生态系统脆弱性的内涵,从暴露性、敏感性和适应性3个维度共识别出影响系统脆弱性的14个具体因素。在此基础上,建立ISM模型对影响我国海洋渔业社会-生态系统脆弱性的因素进行结构解析。研究结果表明:14个影响因素之间相互关联,构成了一个5层级的影响因素递阶结构,其中海洋渔业依赖度、海洋渔业产值和渔民生活幸福感是影响系统脆弱性的表层直接因素;海洋渔业生产效率、海洋环境承载能力、海洋灾害、海洋环境污染、海洋渔业开发强度、海洋环境治理效率及海洋渔业结构优化度是影响系统脆弱性的中层间接因素;海洋气候变化、生产空间压缩、海洋渔业管理效率及水产科技水平是4个深层根源影响因素。

On the basis of the connotation of marine fishery social-ecological systems vulnerability,14 specific factors were identified from three dimensions of exposure,sensitivity-adaptation.The ISM model is constructed to analyze the factors that affect the vulnerability of marine fishery social-ecological systems in China.The research results show that these14 factors were correlative and they established interpretative structural modeling along five layers.In the hierarchical structure,the surface direct influencing factors were the marine fishery dependence,marine fishery output and fishermen s life happiness.The middle indirect influencing factors were the marine fishery production efficiency,marine environmental capacity,marine disasters,marine environment pollution,marine fishery development strength,marine environmental governance efficiency and marine fishery structure.The root and basic influencing factors were ocean climate change,production space compression,marine fishery management efficiency and fishery technology level.