气候变化背景下我国沿海地区发展形势分析

Development Characteristic Analysis of Chinese Coastal Region under Climate Change

我国沿海地区战略地位十分重要,并已呈现"区域发展沿海化,沿海城市临海化"的趋势,但面临着全球气候变化的诸多严峻挑战,亟需解决在气候变化背景下沿海城市是否应继续向海发展,及向海发展多大程度等战略问题。本文对我国的社会经济发展阶段及沿海城市的发展态势进行了详细的分析。结果表明:我国总体已处于工业化后期,开始向后工业化时代迈进。近年来,沿海省、沿海市的经济和建设用地增速都开始低于全国平均水平,但人口增速仍高于全国平均水平。预计未来沿海地区的人口压力仍将持续增长,人口对于用地的需求仍将持续增长,但增速将减缓;产业用地的需求将下降;用地的总需求仍将增长,但增速也将减缓。本文提出如下建议:我国向海发展的大趋势不变,但速度应当放缓,规模应严格控制,部分高风险地区应限制向海发展。向海发展的模式应从简单外延扩张的追求数量型向内涵提升的注重质量型转变。沿海地区发展的临海程度应适当降低,从源头避免超过人类目前预测能力的气候变化灾害给沿海地区造成毁灭性的灾难。用地紧张的沿海城市,不应盲目通过填海来解决,而应首先采取优化调整行政区划与用地指标分配方案、积极盘活存量用地及优化用地供应结构等措施。

The strategic position of China's coastal areas is very important,which has showed a trend that urban development centers are moving toward coastal cities on national level,and coastal cities are developing close to seafront.However,the coastal cities face many severe challenges under global climate change,so that it is urgent to make such strategic decisions as whether China’s coastal cities should continue to develop toward the sea,and the extent of developing toward the sea in the context of climate change,etc.This paper makes a detailed analysis of China's socio-economic development stage and the development trend of coastal cities.The results show that:overall,China has already been in the late industrialization period,and has begun to move toward a post-industrial era.In recent years,the growth rates of economic and construction land development in the coastal provinces and coastal cities have started to fall below the national average,however the population growth rate is still higher than the national average.It is forecasted that the population pressure in the coastal areas will continue to increase in the future,so that the demand for residential land will continue to increase,but the growth rate will slow down;the demand for industrial land will decline;the total demand for construction land will continue to grow,while the growth rate will also slow down.This paper puts forward the following suggestions:China could remain the strategy of developing toward the sea,but the pace should be slowed down,the scale should be strictly controlled,and certain highrisk areas should be limited to develop toward the sea.The development mode should shift from the extensive development to the intensive development mode.The scale of seafront developing should be appropriately reduced,so that catastrophic ruins caused by climate change disasters that exceed the current forecasting capabilities of human beings could be avoided precautionarily.Coastal cities lacking construction land should not resolve this problem simply through reclamation from the sea.Instead,such measures as adjusting administrative divisions and land use indicators allocation,revitalizing stock land,and optimizing land supply structures should be taken first.