冬小麦三种病害潜在适宜分布及其影响因子分析

Potential Suitable Distribution and Analysis on Influencing Factors of Three Winter Wheat Diseases

为研究冬小麦赤霉病、白粉病和纹枯病三种病害的潜在适宜分布,从冬小麦病害发生的气象因子角度出发,利用World Clim-Global Climate Data(1970～2000年) 30年全球平均气象数据资料,通过最大熵物种分布模型,研究了三种病害的分布区域和影响冬小麦三种病害适宜分布的主要影响因子,分析病害潜在分布的气候因子效应。结果表明:小麦赤霉病潜在适宜分布区主要分布在苏南、苏中地区,风速、温度等气象要素影响其适宜分布区;小麦白粉病的潜在分布区以苏南、苏中为主,范围较大,江苏的北部和中部地区以块状分布的形式,分散在各主要城市周围;小麦纹枯病的适宜分布区主要集中在苏南、苏中城市周围一带,苏北主要分布在连云港、宿迁一带。研究结果可以为江苏省冬小麦这三种病害的预防及防御提供一定的气象科学依据。

In order to study the potential suitable distribution of winter wheat head blight,powdery mildew and sheath blight,the global average meteorological data of WorldClim-Global Climate Data(1970~2000)were used to simulate from the perspective of meteorological factors’occurrence and epidemic of winter wheat diseases.Mainly influencing factors were identified that affected the proper distribution of wheat scab,powdery mildew and sheath blight,and the climatic factor effect of the potential distribution of these diseases were analyzed.The results show that the potential suitable distribution of wheat head blight mainly distributes in southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu,and meteorological elements such as wind speed and temperature affect the suitable distribution.The potential distribution of wheat powdery mildew mainly distributes in southern and central Jiangsu.The northern and central regions of Jiangsu are scattered in the form of massive distribution around the major cities;the suitable distribution of wheat sheath blight is mainly around the cities of southern and central Jiangsu,but also distributes in northern Jiangsu,mainly located around the city.The results could provide a scientific and meteorological basis for the prevention of these diseases of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province.