收入水平、人口流动与房价波动——基于省级面板数据的IV-2SLS估计

Income Level,Individuals Flows and House Price Fluctuation:Empirical Study on IV-2SLS based on Provincial Panel Data

基于2003—2016年中国30个省市区的面板数据,运用IV-2SLS方法实证分析房价的影响因素及区域差异。结果显示:收入水平与人口流动推动了过去的房价上涨,但收入水平对东部地区的影响最弱,而人口流动的影响最显著;预期收益增加会引发房价上涨,对东部、西部和中部的影响依次下降;土地财政依赖对东部、西部地区房价的影响明显高于中部地区;少年抚养比的下降和老年抚养比的提高是导致房价持续上涨的人口结构因素,东部沿海和中部地区老年抚养比增加对房价有积极的拉动作用;从婚姻状况看,未婚率能够部分解释房价上升,东部沿海地区离婚率增加使房价飙高;房地产交易环节税对房价上涨的贡献率大于房地产持有环节税,即引导房价理性波动更需要从调整交易环节税着手。

Using panel data of 30 provinces over the 2003-2016 period,this paper uses IV-2SLS method to analysis the impact factors of house prices fluctuation and its regional differences.The results show that:(1)income level and individuals flows has significant effects on house prices,and in the east part of China,the effects of income level is the weakest,while the effects of individuals flows is the most significant;(2)the influence of expected revenue forecast to house prices are gradually declining in the eastern,Western and central;(3)the influence coefficients of land finance dependence are higher in the east and the western region than that of the central region;(4)the young dependency ratio is negatively related to house prices,while the elderly dependency ratio has a significant positive correlation with house prices;(5)in terms of marital status,unmarried rate increase can partly explains the rise of house prices,but the increase of divorce rate has a role in promoting the eastern coastal areas'house prices.(6)the contribution rate of real estate transaction tax to house price is greater than that of real estate holding tax,to guide the rational fluctuation of house price,we should consider ways to adjust taxes on housing sales.