基于系统动力学的社交网络舆情应对策略仿真分析——以“亚布力事件”为例

Simulation Analysis of Coping Strategies for Public Opinions on Social Networks Based on System Dynamics ——Taking the Yabuli Incident as an Example

在信息技术高速发展的背景下,社交网络平台不断涌现并得以广泛使用。它在给生活带来便利的同时却也导致了社交网络舆情的产生,如何有效应对社交网络舆情是政府面临的新挑战。对与社交网络舆情关联度较高的多主体因素进行分析后,采用Vensim PLE软件构建社交网络舆情多主体应对模型,并结合具体案例"亚布力事件"进行仿真分析。结果表明:社交网络舆情受舆情事件、媒体、网民、政府多个主体及其相关因素的共同影响,政府可通过提升舆情事件导控能力、规范和引导媒体行为、积极疏导网民情绪及提高信息透明度等举措有效应对社交网络舆情。

In the context of the rapid development of information technology,social networking platforms are constantly emerging and widely used.While it brings convenience to life,it also leads to the emergence of public opinions on social networks.How to effectively deal with public opinions on social networks is a new challenge facing the government.After the multi-agent factors with high degree of relevance to public opinions on social networks are analyzed,Vensim PLE software is used to construct the multi-agent coping model for public opinions on social networks,and the specific case of“Yabuli Incident”is used for simulation analysis.The results show that public opinions on social networks are affected by the public opinion events,the media,the netizens,and many government entities and related factors.The government can cope effectively with public opinions on social networks through such measures as improving the ability to control public opinions,regulating and guiding media behaviors,actively channeling netizens emotions,and improving information transparency,etc.