“两个比照”政策是否促进了中部崛起

The Effect of the Two Comparative Implementation Policies on the Rise of Central China

本文结合理论推演和PSM-DID方法对"两个比照"政策的实施效果进行分析和估测。理论分析部分将政策干预纳入CES生产函数,推演得出以要素供给和提质增效为基本路径的分析框架,并结合中部崛起的发展规划提出研究假设。实证结果表明,"比照东北振兴"战略实施效应的发挥具有时滞性,但其仍使处理组城市的经济规模较对照组有显著的提升,且"三基地、一枢纽"的战略目标基本达成,然而该政策没有对处理组城市经济转型和提质增效产生明显作用。"比照西部大开发"政策效应的评估结果也支持了该政策各项战略着力点的基本落地,但其未能给县域经济规模或发展水平带来"净效应"。此外,"两个比照"政策导致农业区经济规模以及市域职工工资和县域农民收入的相对下滑,对地区软实力的提升也十分有限,还可能诱发县域的"粘绳纸效应"及政府投资对民间资本的"挤出效应",需要在打造"一中心、四区"战略新定位的过程中给予关注。

Based on theoretical analysis and PSM-DID method, this paper evaluates the effect of the two comparative implementation policies. The part of theoretical analysis introduces policy intervention into the CES production function and obtains the analysis framework with the basic path relying on factors supply and quality and efficiency improvement, then puts forward the hypothesis in light of the development plan of Central China. Empirical analysis finds that the Comparative Implementation of the Northeastern Rejuvenation Policy has a time lag, but still has significant effect on increasing the economic scale of the treated group compared with the control group, and has basically achieved the strategic goal of building "three bases and one hub". However, the policy has no obvious effect on economic transformation or quality and performance improvement of the treated group. The evaluation of the Comparative Implementation of the Western Development Policy shows that all the strategic priorities are basically implemented, but there is no "net effect" on the county-level economic scale or development level. Moreover, the two comparative implementation policies have led to the decline in the economic scale of agricultural production areas and in workers’ wages citywide and farmers’ income countywide, with limited effects on boosting regional soft power. They might trigger the flypaper effect at the county level and cause private capital to be squeezed out by government investment, which deserves proper attention in the process of building "one center and four zones".