城市房价与全要素生产率:“挤出效应”与“筛选效应”

Urban Housing Prices and Total Factor Productivity: “Crowding-out Effects” and “Sorting Effects””

本文主要关注城市房价对整体全要素生产率和企业个体全要素生产率影响的差异性,重点分析城市房价上涨对工业企业的"筛选效应"与"倒逼效应"。利用230个地级市数据和微观工业企业数据,采用工具变量法分别检验了房价对城市整体以及工业企业全要素生产率的差异性影响。实证结果表明,城市高房价显著抑制了城市全要素生产率水平的提升,这种抑制效应主要来自房地产投资对实体经济资金的"挤占效应"和"资源错配效应"。城市房价快速上涨对工业企业的"筛选效应",使房价快速增长城市工业企业的全要素生产率一般会较高。如果对留存企业的"倒逼效应"难以抵消房价上涨带来的效率损失时,房价快速上涨累积形成的高房价与工业企业生产率之间会存在一种"倒U型"曲线关系。城市房价快速上涨对服务业企业的"锁定效应"与生产率的"侵蚀效应",使房价快速上涨及高房价城市中工业企业全要素生产率较高,但城市整体生产率水平较低。稳健性分析也支持了以上研究结论。

The paper mainly focuses on the difference in the effect of urban housing prices on the overall total factor productivity(TFP) and individual corporate TFP, especially on the "sorting effects" and the "reversed transmission of pressure effects" of rising urban housing prices on industrial enterprises. It uses instrumental variables to analyze the data of 230 prefecture-level cities and individual industrial enterprises to check the varying influence of housing prices on the city’s overall TFP as well as individual industrial enterprises’ TFP. The empirical results show that high housing prices significantly inhibit the growth of the city’s overall TFP, mainly due to the "crowding-out effects" and the "resource mismatch effects" of real estate investment on investment in the real economy. Under the "sorting effects" of the fast-growing urban housing prices on industrial enterprises, the industrial enterprises located in cities where housing prices soar tend to have a high TFP. There will be an inverted U-shaped relationship between high housing prices and industrial enterprises’ productivity when retained enterprises fail to offset the loss of efficiency caused by rising house prices through the "reversed transmission of pressure effects". Due to "lock-in effects" of soaring urban housing prices on service enterprises and "erosion effects" on productivity, industrial enterprises in cities with soaring or already sky-high housing prices tend to have a high TFP while these cities’ overall productivity is low. Robustness analysis also supports the above conclusions.