核保护伞下的核扩散——以韩国核武器计划为中心的研究

Nuclear Proliferation under Nuclear Umbrella——Research Centered on ROK's Nuclear Weapons Program

盟国为什么会在盟主提供核安全保障期间发展核武器?主要敌对国安全威胁的上升以及盟主安全保障不再可信是盟国在盟主提供核安全保障期间依然发展核武器的最重要原因。其中,与主要敌对国之间的相对实力差距以及主要敌对国的进攻意图是盟国衡量主要敌对国安全威胁大小的最主要标准;盟主在盟国国土上驻军的增减态势以及盟主在关键外交事件中的战略选择则是盟国用来衡量盟主安全承诺是否可信的最主要标准。本文试图通过对韩国朴正熙时期发展核武器计划的案例探究,检验上述分析框架在论证核保护伞下依然出现核扩散现象时的合理性与可行性。

The increase in the security threats of the major enemy and the non-credibility of the security commitments of the patron are the most important reasons why the client continues to develop nuclear weapons during the period when the patron still provides nuclear safeguards.And,the relative strength gap with the major enemy and the offensive intentions of the major enemy are the most important criteria for the client to measure the size of the security threats of the major enemy;the increase or decrease of patron's troops stationed in the client's national territory and the strategic choices of the patron in key diplomatic events are the most important criteria for the client to measure the credibility of patron's security commitments.Through the case study of the development of the nuclear weapons program during the South Korean President Park Chung-hee administration,to test the rationality and feasibility of the above analysis framework in the demonstration of nuclear proliferation under the nuclear umbrella.