基于蒙特卡洛模拟的连续下降运行间隔分析

A Separation Analysis for Continuous Descent Operations Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

为了推动我国连续下降运行(CDO)的实施,提出了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的连续下降运行间隔分析方法。基于飞行管理计算机优化航空器四维轨迹的原理,设计了连续下降运行的垂直剖面生成模型,提出了基于反向积分策略与四阶龙格库塔方法的垂直剖面计算方法。考虑风、航空器速度、质量的不确定性对航空器轨迹的影响,利用蒙特卡洛模拟仿真策略,实现管制移交间隔的分析与评估。以广州白云国际机场ATAGA方向进场航班为例实施仿真验证,结果表明,在无管制员与飞行员进行干预的情况下,以现行30km管制移交间隔实施连续下降运行,满足运行安全的要求。起始近进定位点处航空器间隔服从均值为15.1km,方差为1.12的正态分布;间隔大于12公里的概率为99.78%。仿真结果验证了现行管制移交间隔下的连续下降运行是有效的。

A method of separation analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation strategy is proposed in order to facilitate implementation of Continuous Descent Operations(CDO)in China.A vertical profile generation model is designed for CDO based on principles of four-dimensional aircraft trajectories optimized by Flight Management System(FMS).The backward integration strategy and fourth order Runge-Kutta method are used to calculate the vertical profile.Uncertain factors including wind,aircraft speed,and aircraft mass are taken into consideration to carry out the separation analysis,and an evaluation for control transfer separation is developed by applying Monte Carlo simulation strategy.Take arrival aircrafts metering at ATAGA entry fix and landing on Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport as a case study,the result indicate that without any interruptions from air traffic controllers or pilots,the current transfer separation(30 km)can meet the requirements of operations.The separation between aircrafts at the Initial Approach Fix(IAF)is following a normal distribution with the mean of 15.1 km and standard variance of 1.12.The probability of the separation more than 12 km is 99.78%.The results verify effectiveness of the CDO implementation under current transfer separation.