全球化钟摆运动的生成机理与发展趋向分析

An Analysis on the Formation Mechanism and Development Trend of Global Pendulum Movement

19世纪末至今,全球化已经历经近两个周期的演变,目前处于第二周期的后半期,全球化与逆全球化(即扩张与收缩)这两种状态交替出现,由此生成"全球化钟摆运动"。这种钟摆运动具有多种特征,其动因主要是:西方国家采取不同举措获取利益;战争与和平的交替出现;全球性经济危机的周期性爆发。基于这些动因的分析能够发现全球化钟摆运动的规律,并预判出其趋向:全球化钟摆第二次回摆必将在一段时间之后让位于全球化的第三次"扩张",但这次回摆的时长极有可能长于第一次回摆的时长(29年)。一些举措的实施能够助推全球化钟摆运动"第三次扩张"的出现:深化世界各国之间的经贸合作,构建平等的经贸关系;削减战争风险;削弱经济危机的负面影响。

From the end of the 19th century to the present,globalization has gone through nearly two cycles of evolution,which is in the second half of the second cycle currently.The two states of globalization and reverse globalization(expansion and contraction)alternate,resulting in a“global pendulum movement”.This pendulum movement has many characteristics.The main motives are:western countries take different measures to gain benefits;the alternating emergence of war and peace;the cyclical outbreak of the global economic crisis.The analysis based on these motivations can discover the laws of the global pendulum movement and predict its trend:the second swing of the global pendulum will give way to the third“expansion”of globalization after a while,but the length of this pendulum is likely to be longer than the length of the first swing(29 years).The implementation of some measures can promote the emergence of the“third expansion”of the global pendulum movement:deepening economic and trade cooperation among countries in the world,building equal economic and trade relations;reducing the risk of war;and weakening the negative impact of the economic crisis.