抚养比对保险密度及保险深度的影响研究——基于2000～2016年我国省级面板数据

Research on the Impact of Dependency Ratio on Insurance Density and Insurance Depth: Based on China's 2000～ 2016 Provincial Panel Data

人口年龄结构变动是影响保险业发展的一个重要因素,"二孩政策"势必给我国的人口年龄结构带来新的变化,进而对保险业造成冲击。以2000～2016年我国31个省、市、自治区(港、澳、台除外)的面板数据为基础,用少儿抚养比以及老年抚养比来衡量人口年龄结构,通过可行广义最小二乘法进行实证分析,发现:少儿抚养比对保险密度及保险深度具有显著的负向影响,而老年抚养比对保险密度及保险深度具有显著的正向影响;与2010年相比,2035年的少儿抚养比预计上升3%,老年抚养比预计上升19%。

The change in population age structure is an important factor affecting the development of the insurance industry. The "two-child policy"is bound to bring new changes to the age structure of China’s population,which in turn will have an impact on the insurance industry. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions( excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan) from2000 to 2016, the population age structure was measured by child dependency ratio and old-age dependency ratio,using the feasible generalized least squares for empirical research. It is found that child dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on insurance density and insurance depth. Old-age dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on insurance density and insurance depth. Comparedwith 2010,the child dependency ratio is expected to increase by 3%,and the old-age dependency ratio is expected to increase by 19% in 2035.