从长期经济增长角度看中美贸易摩擦

China-US Trade Disputes: From a Long-term Economic Growth Perspective

中美贸易摩擦表面上看是由中美间长期经常账户失衡引起的贸易争端,但从更长期的视角来看,背后折射出的是中、美两国在长期经济增速以及生产率进步上的差异。包括美国在内的诸多发达国家在其经济起飞阶段都曾有过长期且稳定的经常项目顺差,实证结果也表明在控制了各国金融市场发展效率及贸易伙伴国经济增速后,国家间相对经济增长率高低是决定两国经常账户结构的基本面因素。从经济增长角度来解释贸易摩擦有两个维度可供考虑:一是当一国增速(相对)放缓时往往倾向于挑起贸易摩擦,二是当国家间增速变动较大时可能激化贸易摩擦。前者主要源于逆差国的不满,后者主要源于全球经济、政治格局大调整带来的冲击。一国长期增长率背后又是以生产率进步为支撑,从这一视角来看,未来贸易摩擦的势头取决于"技术进步"与国家间擦枪走火"意外"的赛跑。

The China-US trade frictions apparently stem from the long-standing current account imbalances between the two countries. However, as we argued in this article, the fundamental cause is the difference in long-term economic growth and productivity progress between the two countries. History shows that many developed countries, including the US, have achieved long-term and steady current account surplus during their economic take-off and catch-up periods. Empirical evidences also show that (relative) economic growth rate is more fundamental in determining a country’s current account status. There are two channels for economic growth to induce trade frictions: one is that a country tends to raise trade frictions when it experiences a slowdown in economic growth, while the other is that the change in economic ranking may also deteriorate trade conflicts. The former is mainly driven by the dissatisfaction of the deficit countries, while the latter is driven by the world-wide adjustment in terms of economic and political power. Since a country’s long-run economic growth relies on the improvement in technology and productivity, the future of the trade frictions will depend on the race between“technological progress”and“accidents”of conflicts that arise from intensifying rivalry between the two powers.