基于BASS模型的共享单车用户扩散研究

The Research on User Diffusion of Shared Bicycle Based on the BASS Model

近年来,共享单车在我国取得了迅速的发展。作为一种技术创新,共享单车是互联网技术与传统自行车行业结合而形成的一种新兴行业,创造了"互联网+"的新业态,其创新扩散值得研究。利用BASS模型对我国共享单车用户的扩散进行初步探讨。介绍互联网共享单车租赁这一新兴模式,梳理BASS模型及其发展。利用共享单车月活跃用户数据确定模型参数,并进行拟合检验,拟合结果比较理想。在此基础上对我国共享单车未来用户规模的发展进行预测,并对其未来扩散提出参考意见。

The shared bicycle has achieved rapid development in China during recent years. As a kind of technological innovation,shared bicycle is a new industry formed by the combination of Internet technology and the traditional bicycle industry. The shared bicycle creates a new format of"Internet +",and its innovation diffusion is worthy of studying. useing the BASS model to explore the diffusion of shared bicycle users in China,introduce the emerging mode of Internet shared bicycle rental,and sort out the BASS model and its development. The model parameters were determined by using the monthly active user data of shared bicycle,the fitting test was carried out,and the fitting result was ideal. On the basis of which the development of the future user scale of shared bicycle in China is predicted,and the reference for future diffusion is put forward.