我国城乡居民收入差距的决定因素和趋势预测

Determinants and Forecast on the Urban-rural Household Income Gap in China

研究目标:分析我国城乡收入差距的长期决定因素,并对其未来走势进行预测。研究方法:建立理论模型,识别出城乡收入差距的长期因素;运用时间序列计量经济学模型,基于1981～2016的年度数据对城乡收入差距进行实证分析;结合宏观经济预测模型,对城乡收入差距在2017～2030年的走势进行预测。研究发现:第一产业与第二、第三产业劳动生产率的比值,农村人口中从事第一产业的比重,以及农民工与城镇职工的工资差距等,是我国城乡收入差距的长期决定因素。在宏观经济增长进入"新常态",城镇化水平继续提高的背景下,未来我国城乡收入差距将继续目前下降的走势,但仍处于较高水平。研究创新:识别出城乡收入差距的长期决定因素,并对城乡收入差距进行预测。研究价值:为制定收入分配政策提供依据。

Research Objectives:Analyze the long-run determinants of the urban-rural household income gap,and forecast its development.Research Methods:Theoretical model,based on empirical investigations for the determinants of urban-rural household income gap is conducted using the annual data 1981~2016.Combining the macroeconometric model,the movement of the income gap is predicted for the period of 2017~2030.Research Findings:The determinants of the income gap are the ratio of the labor productivity of agricultural to the non-agricultural industry,ratio of rural labor in the agricultural industry to the total rural labor,and the wage gap between urban and rural employees.Under the circumstance that China s economy is entering the“New Normal”,and China is in the process of urbanization,we predict the urban-rural household income gap will continue declining,but still stay in a high level.Research Innovations:The determinants of the urban-rural household income gap are identified,and its movement is predicted.Research Value:Implications for the income distribution policies.