基于CCA的太行山区土地利用变化驱动机制分析

Analysis of driving mechanism of land-use change in Taihang mountainous areas based on CCA

基于典范对应分析方法(Canonical Correspondence Analysis,CCA),以太行山区1990年、2015年的土地利用数据及经济社会统计资料为数据源,选取14个经济社会指标,对太行山区近25年来的土地利用变化及其驱动机制进行分析。结果表明:1) 1990—2015年,太行山区土地利用变化面积为5 440. 58 km^2,占太行山区土地总面积的3. 97%。建设用地面积增加了2 002. 59 km^2,增幅居所有土地利用类型首位;耕地面积减少了1 763. 69 km^2,是面积减少最多的土地利用类型,耕地净转移为建设用地是土地利用转移的主导类型。2) CCA分析结果通过95%的显著性检验,太行山区低山丘陵区和盆地区经济社会发展水平较高的县市建设用地面积增加1 137. 47 km^2,耕地面积减少811. 34 km^2,低山丘陵区和盆地区土地系统变化受经济增长、人口增长及城镇化主导因素驱动作用明显;山原区经济社会发展水平较低的县市草地面积减少492. 27 km^2,林地面积增加187. 42 km^2,其土地系统变化受农业生产主导因素驱动作用强烈。区域经济社会发展水平和地形差异是导致太行山区土地系统变化及其驱动机制空间分异的动因。

Based on the land-use data and socio-economic statistics data of Taihang mountains areas in 1990 and 2015,14 socio-economic indicators were selected to analyze the driving mechanism of land-use change in the past 25 years based on Canonical Correspondence Analysis(CCA).The results showed:1)From 1990 to 2015,the land-use change areas of Taihang mountains areas was 5 440.58 km^2,accounting for 3.97%of the total land areas of Taihang mountains areas.The construction land increased by 2 002.59 km^2,which is ranked first among all land-use types;the farmland decreased by 1 763.69 km^2,which was the largest decrease land-use type;farmland transferred to construction land was the leading type of land-use transfer,which transferred areas was 1 723.13 km^2.2)The results of CCA analysis passed the significance test of 95%,the construction land areas of counties and cities with a high level of socio-economic development in the hilly areas and basin areas increased by 1 137.47 km^2,and the farmland areas decreased by 811.34 km^2,the land system changes in the hilly areas and basin areas were significantly driven by economic growth,population growth and urbanization.The grassland areas decreased by 492.27 km^2 and the woodland areas increased by 187.42 km^2 in the counties and cities with low level of socio-economic development in the mountainous region,which was strongly driven by the leading factors of agricultural production.The difference of regional socio-economic development level and topography were the causes of land system change and spatial differentiation of driving mechanism in Taihang mountains areas.