网络热门事件的影响因素及发展态势的预测模型

Influencing Factors of Internet Hot Events and Prediction Model of Development Trend

[目的/意义]旨在对网络热门事件走向进行定性判断。[方法/过程]搜集大量历史数据和文献资料,分析影响网络热门事件在网上传播的主要影响因素,分析了中国蓝皮书上2013—2016年的80个热点舆情事件的数据,建立了能预测网络热门事件舆情传播的Logistics回归模型,并检验模型的正确性。[结果/结论]该模型预测的结果与实际情况的匹配度达到了70%,能为政府监管网络热门事件的决策提供参考依据。

[Purpose/significance]The paper is to make qualitative judgments on the trend of popular online events.[Method/process]The paper collects enormous historical data and literature,analyzes the major influencing factors affected the network hot events,analyzes 80 hot-spot events from 2013 to 2016 in the Chinese Blue Book,builds logistic regression model which can predict popular events network transmission,and tests the correctness of the model.[Result/conclusion]The results show that the matching of the predicted results with the actual situation reaches 70%,and the model can better predict the development direction of popular network events.