总统制下土耳其大选:多视角分析

Presidential System in Turkey:A Multi-perspective Analysis

2018年土耳其举行了"总统制"后的首次大选。此次选举是土耳其近代史上最重要的事件之一,从根本上改变了土国内的政治权力架构。通过对影响土耳其大选的三个变量,即国内政治、经济政策及对外关系等多视角的切入分析,可较好了解总统埃尔多安及其正发党赢得此次大选的原因。未来土耳其国内政治生态将因中左翼势力的上升、威权统治及其"圈子关系"等变得更加复杂,新自由主义经济理念的失灵与政府对经济的过分干预将加剧土经济治理模式的脆弱性,而库尔德问题的跨界与复杂性则会使得土国内政局持续动荡,加之外交政策转型乏力,这些都将是埃尔多安新政府面临的重大挑战。

On June 24,2018,Turkey held its first general election after the“presidential system”.This election is one of the most important events in the modern history of Turkey,fundamentally changing the domestic political power structure.This article analyzes the reasons why Erdogan and his AKP won the election by examining three variables that influence the Turkish election:domestic politics,economic policy,and foreign relations.The complexity of the domestic political ecology in Turkey,the fragility of the economic governance model,and the lack of foreign policy transformation will be major challenges for the Erdogan government.