基于集对分析-可变模糊集耦合方法的溃坝环境影响评价

Dam Breach Environmental Impact Evaluation Based on Set Pair Analysis-Variable Fuzzy Set Coupling Model

针对溃坝环境影响研究内容存在复杂性和不确定性的问题,综合考虑植被覆盖、河道形态、生物多样性、人居景观环境、污染工业、水环境、土壤环境等溃坝环境影响因素,构建并细化了溃坝环境影响评价指标体系和评价等级标准.以集对分析理论核心概念"联系度"和可变模糊集理论核心概念"差异度"在本质上相同为纽带,将改进细化的集对分析联系度函数与可变模糊集理论相结合,用联系度的概念来简化差异度的计算公式,将得到的特征函数代替可变模糊集中的相对差异度函数.建立溃坝环境影响的集对分析-可变模糊集耦合评价模型,实现了集对分析理论与可变模糊集理论的优势互补.将溃坝环境影响的集对分析-可变模糊集耦合评价模型应用于沙河集水库大坝,结果表明:本文模型的评价结果客观合理,更加全面地反映了溃坝环境影响系统的非线性和可变模糊性,符合溃坝环境影响系统的模糊不确定性特点,同时简化了可变模糊差异度的构建过程,提高了评价效率,为溃坝环境影响评价提供了一种科学的方法.

In this study,considering the complexity and uncertainty of dam breach environmental impacts,an evaluation index system and standard of division are constructed considering vegetation cover, channel morphology,biodiversity,human ecological environment,industrial pollution,water environment,and soil environment as the main factors. Considering the concepts of connection degree and difference degree in set pair analysis theory and variable fuzzy set theory,respectively,a new coupling evaluation model is established based on the improved set pair connection degree and variable fuzzy set theory to overcome the inaccuracy defect when variable fuzzy model is used to deal with qualitative index. The coupling model realizes the complementary advantages of set pair analysis theory and variable fuzzy set theory. The model was applied to the Shaheji reservoir dam. Compared to previous studies,the coupling model is reasonable and more objective and it more comprehensively reflects the nonlinearity and variable fuzziness of the dam breach environmental impact system. Moreover,the variable ambiguity is in line with the fuzzy uncertainty characteristics of the dam breach environmental impact system;this simplifies the construction process of variable fuzzy difference degree and improves the evaluation efficiency. Therefore,the established model provides a new method for environmental impact assessment of dam breach.