基于MaxEnt模型的新疆鹅喉羚生境适宜性评价

Assessment of Habitat Suitability for Gazella subgutturosa in the Xinjiang Based on the MaxEnt Modeling

生境评价对物种保护具有非常重要的意义。本文以鹅喉羚为研究对象,2013～2017年通过对新疆各地区开展多次野外考察,共收集了180个鹅喉羚出现点数据,作为其分布点数据,选取19个气候因子、3个地形因子、植被因子、人类干扰因子等4类24种因子作为环境变量因子,利用MaxEnt模型分析了鹅喉羚的生境适宜性分布特征和主要环境变量因子对鹅喉羚分布的影响。结果表明:模型预测结果准确性较高,平均AUC(area under the curve,受试工作者曲线下面积)值为0. 973; Jackknife检验结果显示:海拔、最冷月最低温度(BIO6)、最干季平均温度(BIO9)、年均温(BIO1)、最冷季平均温度(BIO11)为对鹅喉羚生境分布影响最大的环境变量。鹅喉羚在新疆的适宜分布区主要是天山山脉南部的塔里木盆地和塔克拉玛干大沙漠周边区域、天山山脉北部的准噶尔盆地周边区域、新疆东部的吐哈盆地周边地区、新疆最北部的阿勒泰山脉周边区域等。本研究不仅揭示了新疆鹅喉羚的实际分布状况,同时为了更有效地保护新疆鹅喉羚及其栖息环境提供科学依据。

Habitat assessment is important in planning for species protection.We analyzed 180 GPS locations of Gazella subgutturosa recorded during 2013-2017 during field investigations in various regions of Xinjiang,China.Four categories of 24 factors including 19 climatic factors,3 topographic factors,vegetation factors,and human interference factors were selected as environmental variables.We used the MaxEnt model to analyze habitat suitability for G.subgutturosa and the effects of these environmental variables on habitat use.The accuracy of predicted models was relatively high with area-under-the-curve(AUC)values of 0.973.Jackknife test indicated that elevation,lowest monthly temperature(BIO6),driest seasonal mean temperature(BIO9),annual mean temperature(BIO1),and coldest seasonal mean temperature(BIO11)were the environmental variables that most affected the habitat distribution of G.subgutturosa.Among these,the influence of elevation was most significant.The areas of most suitable habitat in Xinjiang were in the Tarim Basin of the southern Tianshan Mountains and around the Taklimakan Desert,the surrounding area of the Junggar Basin in the northern Tianshan Mountains,the area surrounding the Turpan Hami Basin in eastern Xinjiang,and the area surrounding the Altay Mountains in northernmost Xinjiang.This study provided information on the actual distribution of Gazella subgutturosa in Xinjiang and identifies important indicators that could be investigated by future studies on this species and its habitat.