基于新陈代谢均值灰模型的中国跨境电商发展预测

Prediction of the Development of Cross-border E-commerce in China Based on the Grey Average Metabolism Model

跨境电商是"互联网+外贸"的主要表现形式,中国跨境电商的持续发展,将影响中国未来贸易格局和中国经济的整体发展。在中美贸易战愈演愈烈的当下,科学预测中国跨境电商发展,对增强企业信心以及制定跨境电商相关决策具有重要战略意义。中国跨境电商由于发展时间短,数据沉淀年份少,具有少数据、贫信息的不确定系统特征。根据上述特征,文章采用灰色系统模型对中国跨境电商发展进行预测,并通过实证研究比较了一般均值灰模型、新信息灰模型及新陈代谢灰模型预测精度,验证了新陈代谢灰模型在三种模型中预测精度最高的结论,并依据此方法对中国2018～2025年跨境电商发展规模进行了中长期预测。

Cross-border E-commerce is the main form of“internet plus foreign trade”.The sustainable development of China's cross-border E-commerce will affect China's future trade pattern and the overall development of China's economy.At the present time when sino-us trade war is becoming increasingly fierce,scientific prediction of China's cross-border E-commerce development is of great strategic significance for enhancing business confidence and making decisions related to cross-border E-commerce.Due to the short development time and less data precipitation years,China's cross-border E-commerce has the uncertain system characteristics of a few data and information.According to the above characteristics,the article uses the grey system model to predict the development of China's cross-border E-commerce,and compares prediction accuracy among the general average metabolism of grey model,new information grey model and grey model through the empirical study.Metabolism grey model is verified that its prediction accuracy is the highest in three kinds of models.On the basis of this method,China's cross-border E-commerce development scale in 2018~2025 is predicted for the medium and long term.