本溪市郊近60年气温变化特征和突变分析

Analysis on the Variation Characteristics and Mutations of Temperature in the Suburbs of Benxi in the Past 60 Years

根据本溪市郊1953—2015年近63年的气温资料,运用线性倾向估计、累积距平和Mann—Kendall法,分析年际和各个季节平均气温的变化趋势和突变情况。结果表明:近63年来本溪市郊气温以增温为主,冬季气温增温最为显著;年、春和冬季气温以20世纪80年代后期为界,夏季和秋季以20世纪90年代初期为界,之前为相对冷期,其后为相对暖期;根据Mann-Kendall检验法,得出年和冬季在20世纪80年代期间发生突变,20世纪90年代初期后气温显著增高;而夏季和秋季在20世纪90年代中期发生突变,21世纪初期后增温显著,春季在20世纪70年代后期发生突变,20世纪90年代初期后气温显著增高。

According to the temperature data of the past 63 years from 1953 to 2015 in the suburbs of Benxi,linear tendency estimation,cumulative distance and Mann-Kendall method were used to calculate the changes and mutations in the average temperature trends between years and seasons.The results show that:In the past 63 years,The temperature in the suburbs of Benxi is mainly increased,and the temperature increase in winter is the most significant;In the suburbs of Benxi,the temperature in spring and winter is bounded by the late 1980s,while Xiahe's autumn is bounded by the early 1990s,before the relatively cold period followed by a relatively warm period;According to the Mann-Kendall test,the year and winter mutated during the 1980s,and the temperature increased significantly after the early 1990s,while Xiahe's autumn mutated in the mid-1990s,in the early 21st century.After significant warming,The spring mutated in the late 1970s and the temperature increased significantly after the early 1990s.