江西棉花生产状况分析与发展建议

Analysis on cotton production in Jiangxi province and countermeasures for its development

通过综合分析江西省近年棉花生产状况及变化,进一步了解江西棉花生产现状及所面临的问题。利用《中国棉花景气报告》中江西省棉花生长指数(CCGI)和国家统计局的相关数据以及江西省棉花研究所的监测数据,从种植面积、生长指数、产量、成本和收益等方面对江西棉花生产进行综合分析。结果表明:近年来,江西省棉花生产种植面积从1994年历史最高的163300hm^2下降至2017年的50600hm^2,近5年下降明显,生长指数年度间变化幅度大;皮棉单产和总产均于2012年达到最高值,分别为1790kg/hm^2和15.2万t;种植总成本从2009年15411.8元/hm^2直线上升至2011年的29940.0元/hm^2,且主要是由于人工成本逐年攀升;籽棉单价从2010年11.3元/kg急剧下降至2015年5.5元/kg,降幅高达51.3%,收益从2010年30100.9元/hm^2逐年下降甚至出现负效应;进一步分析表明籽棉单价和劳动力成本的高低与农民种植棉花的收益和积极性密切相关。国家需加大棉花目标价格补贴力度,棉花生产应朝着轻简化和机械化方向发展,并提出了相关建议和对策以提振江西棉花生产。

Through comprehensively analyzing the status and changes of Jiangxi’s cotton production in recent years,the current situation and problems of cotton production in Jiangxi can be further understood.Based on the data of Jiangxi cotton growth index(CCGI),National Bureau of Statistics and monitoring data of Jiangxi Cotton Research Institute in"China cotton prosperity report",Jiangxi cotton production was comprehensively analyzed from the aspects of planting area,growth index,yield,cost and benefit.The results showed that in recent years the planting area in Jiangxi decreased from 1 633 300 hm2 in 1994(the highest in history)to 50 600 hm2 in 2017.In recent 5 years,it had decreased significantly and the annual growth index has varied greatly.Both lint yield and total production reached their highest values in 2012,at 1 790 kg/hm2 and 152 000 tons,respectively.The total planting cost dramatically increased from 15411.8 yuan/hm2 in 2009 to 29 940.0 yuan/hm2 in 2011.Owing to the annually rising labor cost,the unit price of seed cotton decreased dramatically from 11.3 yuan in 2010 to 5.5 yuan in 2015,with a drop of 51.3%.Revenue declined year by year from 30 100.9 yuan/hm2 in 2010,and even showed negative effects.Further correlation analysis showed that the unit price and labor cost of seed cotton were closely related to the income and initiative of farmers.The state needed to increase the subsidy for cotton target price,and cotton production should be lightly simplified and mechanized.The paper also put forward some suggestions and countermeasures to boost Jiangxi’s cotton production.