我国财政支出、进出口贸易总额与税收收入关系的研究

A Study on the Relation between China's Financial Expenditure,Total Import and Export Trade and Tax Revenue

本文采用时间序列方法研究税收收入与进出口贸易总额、财政支出之间关系,研究结果表明,这3个序列都是非平稳的。取自然对数并做一阶差分之后序列变为平稳,在进行Johansen协整检验时得出序列之间有1个协整向量,利用取对数之后的序列做多元时间序列VARX模型能够很好地解释税收收入、进出口贸易总额、财政支出之间的关系。

Time series knowledge is used to study the relationship between tax revenue,net export trade and fiscal expenditure.It is concluded that all the three sequences are non-stationary,but after taking the natural logarithm and making the first difference,the sequence becomes stationary.In the Johansen cointegration test,it can be concluded that there is one co-integration vector between sequences.VARX model of multiple time series based on the logarithmic sequence can well explain the relationship between tax revenue,total import and export trade and fiscal expenditure.