基于降水分析的径流代表性研究

Study on Representativeness of Runoff Series Based on Precipitation Analysis

以延河安塞站为例,取其1953—2015年降水系列及1981—2015年径流系列,采用极值比法、周期分析和长短系列统计特性分析等方法,进行径流系列的代表性分析。结果表明:从降水分析选择1985—2006年系列是一个完整的丰、平、枯水周期,且短系列均值和C_v与长系列接近,系列代表性较好。考虑系列长度要求、工程的任务和安全富余,防洪工程推荐采用1981—2011年短系列,供水工程推荐采用1981—2015年实测径流系列作为工程设计依据。

Taking Ansai hydrological station for example,it's runoff series of 1981-2015 and precipitation series of 1953-2015 were used to analyze and justify the runoff series representativeness of the Yanhe by means of extreme ratio method,periodic analysis and statistical features analysis of long and short series.The results show that the symmetry of wet,mean and dry year groups from 1985 to 2006 annual runoff series are good in Ansai station.Considering the requirements of series length,the task and safety of the project,the short series from 1981 to 2011 is recommended for flood control projects,and the series of runoff from 1981 to 2015 is used as the design basis for water supply projects on the upper Yanhe River.