基于水量平衡方程的水库调洪演算基础数据误差传播规律研究

Study on Basic Data Error Propagation Law of Reservoir Flood Regulation Calculation Based on Water Balance Equation

采用水量平衡方程调洪演算时,洪水、泄洪能力和库容等基础数据可能存在误差,将影响到计算的调洪成果精度。各基础数据的相对误差会产生库水位的单步误差和传播累积误差。库水位上升期入库洪水流量误差对库水位单步误差有放大效应,产生的水位单步误差、传播累积误差最严重;库容误差在库水位极值前后产生的库水位误差正负号相反,库容相对误差为正值时对库水位误差有缩减效应;接近最高库水位处洪水和泄洪能力误差产生的水位单步相对误差存在奇点。

When using water balance equation for flood regulation calculation,there may be errors in basic data such as flood,flood discharge capacity and storage capacity,which will affect the accuracy of calculation results.The relative errors of the basic data will produce single-step errors and propagation cumulative errors of the reservoir water level.The single-step error of the reservoir water level is amplified by the flood discharge error of the reservoir during the rising period of the reservoir water level,and the single-step error of the reservoir water level and the cumulative error of propagation are the most serious.The positive or negative sign of the reservoir water level error caused by the storage capacity error is opposite before and after the extreme value of the reservoir water level.when the storage capacity relative error is positive,it has a reducing effect on the reservoir water level error.There is a singularity in the single-step relative error of water level caused by flood and flood discharge capacity error near the highest reservoir water level.