土地财政对产业结构合理化、高度化影响的实证研究

Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Land Finance on Rationalization and Supererogation of Industrial Structure

基于2000～2017年30个省市区的面板数据,本文构建静态与动态面板模型,实证研究土地财政对产业结构合理化与高度化的阶段性、区域性影响。结果表明:地方政府对土地财政依赖程度越高,将越抑制产业结构合理化调整;当土地财政依赖度小于57. 97%时促进产业结构高度化发展,超过该比重则出现抑制效应,两者间呈倒U型关系;在东部地区,土地财政促进产业结构向更高层次演进,却显著抑制合理化发展;在中西部地区,土地财政先促进后抑制产业结构高度化,极值点分别为:45. 15%、18. 92%,同样对合理化的影响也存在极值点。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2017,this paper empirically analyzes the periodic and regional impacts of land finance on rationalization and supererogation of industrial structure by building the static and dynamic panel model.The research shows:the higher the local government's dependence on land finance,the more it will restrain the rationalization of industrial structure;the effect of land finance on the supererogation of industrial structure is inverted u-shaped,with its extreme point at 57.97%;the land finance restrains the rationalization and promotes the supererogation of the industrial structure in the eastern region,but,in the central and western regions,it firstly contributes and then inhibits the supererogation of the industrial structure,with its extreme points at 45.15% and 18.92%,and it effects the rationalization also has extreme points.